Somalia: Can indirect Election be the Answer?

By Mohamed M Adde – Horn of Africa Editor, The African Gazette       The caretaker government of Somalia announces officially that campaigning for indirect elections is to begin and have instructed all government institutions to work in unison on that election plan. The Somali Prime Minister, Mohamed Osman Roble in live broadcast, informed the security sector and airport authority not to impede the movement of politicians for their campaign travels.

What exactly is meant by indirect elections?

For security reasons, Somalia cannot hold the so-called general election, where politicians can go in their respective constituencies to get elected, because a big sway of the country is out of government control. Instead the country has opted for the 2016 indirect election model, where four big clans and other minority tribes chose members of parliament that decided on the country’s next President.

New timetable was released last week which specifies new dates after the electoral committee’s previous timetable faltered. This time round the caretaker Prime Minister is firmly determined to ensure that the two month indirect electoral process goes ahead on schedule. That is the way he has started ironing out the outstanding contentious issues.

There are five regional states in Somalia and unionist politicians representing Somaliland. Each state has its own unique problems which can hinder or wreck the indirect elections of their representatives. The Prime Minster is in a real political landmine and no one trusts him.

The question on everybody’s lips is ‘Can he hold indirect elections on time?’

The Prime Minster reckons that he can. That is why he started meeting the heads for the main issues; the reconciliation committee whose assignment was to sort out Jubaland dispute between the Somali president, Mohamed Abdullahi Farmaajo’s clan and regional president Ahmed Islam’s clan.  Their two clans are at serious loggerheads over the control of 16 parliament seats in Gedo district, which is geographically a part in Jubaland regional State.

The PM also met in his office the speaker of Upper House and the Deputy Prime minister who are fighting over the chairmanship of their sub-electoral committee for their clan. Both politicians are from breakaway republic of Somaliland, but they are unionist politicians who have been part and parcel in Somali politics. Their votes are important for every Presidential candidate and any candidate who secures them will have a good edge.

There are issues in other regional states as well which need to be handled tactfully. Hiiraan, a district which is a part of Hirshabelle prefers reconciliation amongst clans rather than holding indirect election. An armed group led by a self-styled general is in the outskirts of Belet Weyne and he is refusing his district to take part in the polls.

In Galmudug regional state, security is a big issue and the regional President is struggling to cope with conflicting interests within the sub clans and the security threat from Alshabab in his state. South West regional state has its own localised problems including security.

Contrasting opinions

Many people think it will be very difficult for the Prime Minister to sort out all these problems on time. But analysts are watching very closely the work at hand and would not say a word until the five regional State Parliaments and unionist politicians vote for their regional senators for the Federal Parliament. They believe that could be a good indicator for the success of the caretaker Prime Minister to deliver the transparent indirect vote that he promised.

On one hand, some Somalis are optimistic and say that it is a good sign that the two former Presidents Sharif Sheik Ahmed and Hassan Sheikh Mohamed, who are running for top office among many candidates, started their campaigns in Hirshabelle regional state. The incumbent, Mohamed. Farmaajo, has yet to announce his candidacy, let alone to campaign. He is probably weighing up his options whether to run another term or not. But time will tell what he does next.

On the other hand, some others are pessimistic and question the entire process and whether indirect elections itself will be scotch free and can be held on time.

Meanwhile, the Somali public and the International Community – who are jointly funding indirect polls – fed up with the Somali political impasse want to see the country to have a violence free indirect elections, no matter what! However, odds are low and no one can predict what is to come in the next few weeks.

In the first week of August, senators should be in place, if the schedule is respected.

Mr. Mohamed M Adde is a household name throughout Somalia  and beyond  as a seasoned journalist who worked in the Horn of Africa region and UK. Over the years, Mr. Mohamed has edited over 40,000 radio programmes. He now lives in Mogadishu after leaving the BBC World Service, where he writes pieces and articles for radio and news websites. In the past, he worked as a teacher, a lecturer and a trainer in Somalia and overseas in public and private sectors. Amongst other things, Mr. Mohamed writes and lectures on the Declaration of Universal Human Rights, child Rights and minority rights. Mr. Mohamed is a keen supporter of  Somali literature, poetry, storytelling and folklore dance and he is an honorary member of Council of Somali Poets.

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