Recent territorial gains by the M23 rebel group in the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC) has sparked speculations over possible negotiations with President Felix Tshisekedi.
Earlier this month, the M23 took control of Nyanzale, a strategic city located 130 km from Goma, the capital of North-Kivu Province, which was previously under the control of Congolese forces.
Officials say the conflict resulted in the displacement of over 100,000 civilians, with more than a dozen casualties, including children.
The M23 insurgency broke out in 2021 and evolved into one of the fiercest military factions in the DRC. The movement is rooted in many grievances, including the alleged marginalisation of Tutsi ethnic minorities, a perceived dissatisfaction with the government’s handling of peace agreements, and the control over the resource-rich eastern territories. The rebellion is evidence of deep-seated tensions in the region.
While some believe the grievances of the M23 are open to resolution through negotiations, others perceive the group as a proxy for the economic and security interests of Rwanda.
Several governments, including the United States, say Rwanda is behind the M23, citing substantial evidence. But Rwanda has consistently denied any involvement.
Direct Talks with Kinshasa
A government source, speaking on condition of anonymity, told the African Gazette that M23 leaders might seek power-sharing arrangements, if the rebel group’s demands are met.
This could involve the integration of M23 fighters into the national army, granting them control of Eastern DRC. The group could also secure influential positions within local governance and military hierarchies.
However according to our source, the distrust between the M23 and the rival Alliance du Fleuve Congo (AFC) poses a serious obstacle.
The AFC advocates for state rebuilding to address the underlying causes of the conflict. The difference of agenda between the M23 and the AFC, which seeks a potential leadership change in Kinshasa, raises doubts about the extent of its willingness to cooperate.
Direct talks between the M23 and the Kinshasa government began in Kampala in 2012 but faltered, ultimately leading to a regional military intervention that ended the crisis in November 2013.
Since then, the group retreated to Rwanda and Uganda, where it remained dormant until hostilities reignited in April 2021, over the unresolved grievances.
Diplomatic Endeavours
The Angolan Foreign Affairs Ministry disclosed the possibility of talks between President Tshisekedi and his Rwandan counterpart, Paul Kagame.
A source close to the M23 told the African Gazette that the group’s strengthened position may lead to demands for concessions, including power-sharing and a role in governmental and military spheres—a prospect Tshisekedi may hesitate to embrace.
Tshisekedi, who recently secured a second term, faces the challenge of balancing international pressure with domestic expectations.
Some experts believe a transitional government that would extend his rule may be put in place, while others caution against talks with a group labeled as “terrorist” by some observers.
Experts estimate that approximately six million lives have been lost in the armed conflict since 1996, and any deal would likely take into account the humanitarian toll of the conflict.