How Will the Next Democratic Republic of Congo War End?
By Ignatius Bahizi, TAG Africa editor
Kampala, 26 June 2003- For the past few months, there has been a bit of calmness in some parts of the Eastern Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC) as a result of a cease-fire being observed between the M23 rebels and the Government Forces (FARDC). This follows several meetings and the signing of agreements in Kenya, Burundi, and Angola. All these engagements involved heads of state from the East African Community and the South African Development Cooperation.
The agreements required the M23 rebel force led by Gen. Sultan Makenga to leave all the areas they had captured from the government forces and assemble at an agreed point in the Virunga ranges, in preparation for talks with the Kinshasa government. However, Kinshasa has insisted it will not hold talks with what it refers to as a terrorist group. It says, the only alternative the rebels have is to allow to be disarmed and reintegrated into the Congo community if they are indeed Congolese. Members of M23 are considered non-citizens by the DRC because of their Rwandan descent.
The rebel group overpowered the Government Force (FARDC) throughout the year-long battle, capturing almost the entire North-Kivu, and expanding to parts of South Kivu. They had also established civilian administration in some of the areas they occupied.
The cessation of hostilities, and the withdrawal of the M23 from the areas they had occupied, was followed by the deployment of the East African Community Regional Force (EAC-RF), which took over security responsibilities in the areas that the rebels withdrew from. The EAC-RF peace mission is composed of troops from Kenyan Burundi, Uganda, and South Sudan.
DID THE REBELS (M23) WITHDRAW?
Before retreating from the territories they had captured, the M23 warned that it would not hesitate to recapture the areas if the government Forces and their allies dared a comeback. This was seen by the DRC government as being arrogant for the rebels.
Civilian and security sources in North Kivu informed the African Gazette that the rebels did not completely leave the areas they occupied before the said withdrawal. They instead retreated to a few kilometers away from villages and towns like Kiwanja, and Bunagana in order to keep an eye on their former positions so that they are able to repulse their opponents in case they came back.
The rebels accuse the Government Army- FARDC backed by a combination of local armed militias for attacking Congolese Civilian Populations of Rwandan descent accusing them of collaborating with the enemy. They also alleged that the Burundian force under EAC-RF was working closely with the Government Army, and allowing them to come back to villages that they handed over to the regional force.
Congolese Authorities also accuse neighboring Rwanda of backing the rebels, but it denies responsibility. Kinshasa further blames Ugandan and Kenyan peacekeepers for being sympathetic to the M23 rebels, and not doing much to restore peace in the area. When contacted for a response over the accusations, Uganda’s military and defense spokesperson Brig. Gen. Felix Kulagye dismissed them as false. He says that Congolese have to be patient because they- EAC-RF are not God to restore stability in a very short time.
DRC president Felix Tshisekedi seeming frustrated by EAC-RF’s failure to root out M23 from his country, asked the South African Development Cooperation (SADC) a grouping of countries from the Southern part of Africa to send a military force to replace the EAC-RF. Although SADC countries agreed in principle to deploy a force, no country has yet announced their commitment and schedule of deployment, and instead, the EAC-RF force’s mandate has been extended for another three months.
WHAT IS THE END PLAN IN EASTERN DRC?
For now, it is not yet clear how the problem between the Congolese government and the M23 will end. To some analysts, if the SADC force is deployed in the same area as EAC-RF, there is a possibility of violent confrontations between the two regional groups. According to Uganda’s Brig. Gen. Felix Kulaigye, their deployment to Eastern DRC was a decision of EAC presidents, and their withdrawal would have to go through the same procedure.
Intelligence officials in the region have predicted a much more destructive war than the previous one in the troubled region. Information from Kivu also indicate that both the government of DRC and the M23 rebels are all in intensive preparations to resume fighting. If this happens, with the presence of both SADC and EAC-RF in the battle field, it may necessitate the regional groups to choose on whose side to fight against the other.
It is also possible that informed by this security puzzle, President Felix Tshisekedi relaxed his stance on the EAC-RF forced withdrawal and delayed the deployment of a force from SADC to avoid another regional war, which would have the potential to hurt his presidency.
On the insistence by Kinshasa that M23 fighters have one option of disarming if they consider themselves to be Congolese, a source among the M23 told the African Gazette that the comments from President Felix Tshisekedi and his continued challenging of their citizenship are taken as insults, and that no amount of foreign support to FARDC, be it weaponry or manpower would shake their resolve to fight for their dignity and citizenship rights.
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