Is Uganda Headed for a Dynasty?
The appointment of President Museveni's son as Uganda's Chief of Defence Forces (CDF) carries profound implications for the nation, the region, and international relations.
In recent years, Gen. Muhoozi Kainerugaba has ventured into politics, despite regulations barring serving Army officers from active political involvement.
He has garnered support from a diverse group of young Ugandans, including university graduates and professionals, positioning him as a prospective future president.
At 49 years old, General Muhoozi's promotion coincided with a minor cabinet reshuffle, leading to the removal of five ministers and the appointment of two of his most trusted associates. Mr. Balaam Barugahara, Muhoozi's key advocate, was appointed as a junior minister overseeing youth affairs.
Analysts speculate that this move aims to garner support from the youth demographic for General Muhoozi, given that a significant portion of Uganda's youth currently align with opposition leader Bobi Wine.
Another close confidant of Muhoozi, Lillian Aber, assumed the role of State Minister for disaster preparedness and youth affairs. Their appointment to the cabinet fueled speculation that they are being groomed for senior positions in a future Muhoozi administration slated for 2031.
General Muhozi’s involvement in political rallies across the country has drawn criticism, raising concerns about the breach of regulations barring active-duty army officers in Uganda from engaging in politics.
As the son of President Yoweri Museveni, who has held power for over three decades, Muhoozi's promotion underscores the entrenched familial ties within Uganda's military and political domains.
Monarchism?
Primarily, for Ugandans, Muhoozi's appointment prompts questions about the perpetuation of a dynastic regime. With his father's prolonged rule, apprehensions regarding succession have been rife. Muhoozi's assumption of such a pivotal role reinforces the perception of a predetermined succession plan within the Museveni family. Opposition lawmaker Ibrahim Ssemujju Nganda emphasized that "Uganda is not a monarchy."
The African Gazette reporter in Kampala, Ignatius Bahizi says the potential scenarios of a power vacuum in Uganda, where General Muhoozi emerges as a successor, echo historical precedents in other African nations. Additionally, his appointment has ramifications for military operations, regional dynamics, and international relations, particularly with neighboring countries like the DRC and Rwanda. However, the extent of Muhoozi's influence and the outcomes of his tenure hinge on numerous factors, including internal power dynamics, regional geopolitics, and global shifts.
In 2013, the former coordinator of intelligence services, Gen. David Sejusa, penned an exposé on the succession plan dubbed the "Muhoozi Project." He detailed President Museveni's scheme to position his son for succession. Sejusa, a seasoned General who had fought alongside Mr. Museveni during the five-year guerrilla war, cautioned against this move, citing its threat to Uganda's democracy and the founding principles of their struggle.
Facing imminent arrest for his revelations, Sejusa fled into exile, only to return years later. The Daily Monitor newspaper, which had published his dossier, faced temporary closure in the aftermath.
Since then, senior Army officers who once fought alongside Museveni found themselves sidelined, with many opting for retirement. This opened the door for younger officers like Muhoozi and his cohort to ascend and assume key positions within the Army. Today, a significant portion of Army leadership comprises Muhoozi's peers or those slightly younger, many of whom owe their recruitment to him.
Analysts view this as a strategic maneuver to consolidate an army loyal to Muhozi Kainerugaba. His extensive command experience, from leading elite forces to overseeing the entire UPDF, affords him a comprehensive understanding of the military and its crucial components.
Mr. Mwambusya Ndebesa, a Professor of Political Science at Makerere University, contextualizes Museveni's dynastic tendencies within the broader failure of liberal democracy to take root in African politics. Notably, the president's wife, serving as the Minister of Education for over a decade, and several relatives holding key government positions, reinforce this trend. Some political observers, like Ndebesa, warn that Uganda is veering towards monarchism.
Grooming?
President Museveni has refuted speculation of grooming his son as his successor. Some experts suggest that President Museveni, who has never publicly expressed his disapproval of his son's potential presidential bid in 2026, might have elevated him to expose his capabilities to the Ugandan populace, deterring his eventual candidacy.
Others say this move could further consolidate power within the family, eroding democratic principles and inciting dissatisfaction among those advocating for political reform.
African Gazette’s Ignatius Bahizi says Muhoozi's appointment, coupled with his 25-year tenure in the army, could reshape Uganda's military strategies and operations. As a seasoned military officer with diverse command experiences, his leadership might instigate alterations in defense policies and military involvements, both domestically and regionally. However, observers say this could escalate militarization and raise human rights concerns if his tenure prioritizes military interventions over political dialogues and civilian governance.
Concerning the ongoing conflict in the Eastern Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC), Muhoozi's appointment may not immediately alter Uganda's approach. Historically, Uganda has intervened in the region's conflicts, deploying troops to safeguard its security and economic interests.
A high-ranking officer within the UPDF told the African Gazette that Muhoozi's leadership might sustain this approach, maintaining Uganda's involvement in the DRC to pursue strategic objectives such as counter-insurgency operations or resource extraction.
Regarding Rwanda, Muhoozi's close ties with President Paul Kagame could influence bilateral relations. Both countries have experienced strained relations due to allegations of supporting rebel groups hostile to each other's governments. Muhoozi's rapport with Kagame might facilitate dialogue and cooperation, potentially alleviating tensions and promoting regional stability, contingent upon broader geopolitical dynamics and the interests of both nations.
In summary, Muhoozi's appointment as Uganda's Chief of Defense Forces signifies the consolidation of power within the Museveni family, raising concerns about Uganda's political trajectory and governance.