Ethiopia Must Avoid the Impending Civil War: A Deeper Look
By Mohamed M. Adde – Horn of Africa Editor, The African Gazette A civil war destroys the fabric of any nation. If politicians fail to compromise or contain the violence in its early stages, the law and order situation deteriorates rapidly causing much pain to everyone in the country, young and old. A political disagreement is not a good reason to ruin a given country in this day and age. There are regional and international institutions which are responsible for bringing in peace. The civil war experience of other nations were studied and discussed extensively in diplomatic corridors. The repercussions indeed can’t be taken lightly, in terms of human suffering and financial costs involved.
African countries in civil wars
South Sudan had a bitter civil war soon after inception, which eventually ended in peace talks after long negotiations and mediations. The politicians realized the futility of the few years of mindless violence. Nearly a half million were killed, thousands wounded and over two million were displaced since 2013.
Somalia has been synonymous with civil war for three decades and her people have witnessed all the ills of civil strife. Until now, the country is struggling to heal the wounds that it had sustained over the years. Generations were raised in dire circumstances and in refugee camps.
Ironically, Ethiopia took part in pacification of South Sudan and Somalia. Both countries are Ethiopian neighbours and their case files are still active in African Union office in Addis Ababa with the help of Ethiopian expertise. It is high time that the African Union should lead the efforts to pacify Ethiopia too, because it has been a very influential member of the organisation.
It is no secret that Ethiopia has helped other African countries to come out from deep graves of civil war in the past. Today, Ethiopia needs the good service of African Union. All African countries should work together and put pressure on Ethiopian political and military elite to stop the violence and save the country from civil war. To name a few, Nigeria, South Africa and other big nations of the continent should lead the way.
The Ethiopian crises
It is sad that under the watch of African union, the tragedy of Ethiopian crises continues. What is going there, for the last nine months, has all the hallmarking of early stages of civil war and it should be contained before it is too late; otherwise Ethiopia is likely to join the long list of the countries destroyed by civil wars. At the beginning, what was thought to be a constitutional disagreement between the Federal government and Tigray regional authority, it turned into a full fledged war, soon after Tigray Federal state announced it was not part of Ethiopia. The government resorted to violence and took over the entire region of Tigray. Many were killed and displaced in the first few weeks and months of the hostilities. The fighting lingering on for months forced many people to starve. Large number of people were reported to have crossed the border to Sudan.
All of a sudden, heavy fighting in the middle of June led the federal government to lose all the territory it gained early on in the fighting. There were claims and contra claims over that decisive battle as there were no independent sources to confirm what had been happening there. The media covered the military retreat of Ethiopian army and jubilation of the other side. Analysts believe that humanitarian aid did not reach that area where over a million was thought to be starving, despite the efforts of the international mediators. For that reason the Ethiopian government announced unilateral cease fire, but Tigray authority refused to acknowledge that fact and promised to fight on.
African mediation is the only way out
Both Ethiopian federal politicians and the Tigray People’s Liberation Front (TPLF) should be mindful by refusing ceasefires that would lead the country into a bottomless pit; and that scenario is not unlikely. Tigray regional authority is said to be arming civilians and government side is doing the same. It is time that African Union tries to halt drumming up more violence and realize that it will not do any good, rather bring destruction and misery to all citizens.
Ethiopians, by any means necessary, should avoid anything that could exacerbate the situation any further. There are reports indicating that the mayhem is likely to spread to other regions which are now relatively peaceful. The inflation is said to be skyrocketing quickly and the poor will go hungry soon, if something is not done urgently. In few days or months, the fighting will erode the economy and undo the infrastructure which was built after many years of hard work.
More violence will dismantle the country and its infrastructure. It will become eventually necessary to settle political disputes through political talks and in a civilised manner. African Union is well placed to deal with this crises. Ethiopians should accept mediation and reconciliation now with the help of their African brethren to save their people and their country from unnecessary suffering and protracted civil war.
Mr. Mohamed M Adde is a household name throughout Somalia and beyond as a seasoned journalist who worked in the Horn of Africa region and UK. Over the years, Mr. Mohamed has edited over 40,000 radio programmes. He now lives in Mogadishu after leaving the BBC World Service, where he writes pieces and articles for radio and news websites. In the past, he worked as a teacher, a lecturer and a trainer in Somalia and overseas in public and private sectors. Amongst other things, Mr. Mohamed writes and lectures on the Declaration of Universal Human Rights, child Rights and minority rights. Mr. Mohamed is a keen supporter of Somali literature, poetry, storytelling and folklore dance and he is an honorary member of Council of Somali Poets.
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